Seasonal Forecast

As we approach the winter season, many Wake County residents are wondering what the coming months will bring. Based on current atmospheric patterns, ocean temperatures, and long-range model guidance, here's our comprehensive look at what to expect this winter.

The Big Picture: El Niño Influence

This winter, we're dealing with a moderate to strong El Niño pattern, which typically brings warmer and wetter conditions to the southeastern United States. El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean are warmer than average, which fundamentally changes global weather patterns.

For Wake County, this typically means:

• Above-average precipitation, especially in late winter and early spring
• Temperatures that trend slightly above normal overall
• More frequent storm systems moving through the region
• Increased potential for ice events rather than heavy snow

Temperature Outlook

December: Expect temperatures to be near to slightly above average. Typical highs in the mid-50s and lows in the mid-30s, with occasional warm spells pushing into the 60s. Cold snaps are possible but likely to be brief.

January: This should be our coldest month, but even here, temperatures are expected to average 2-3 degrees above normal. Look for highs typically in the low 50s and lows in the mid-30s. The jet stream pattern suggests more frequent mild periods than typical.

February: Transition month where we'll see a gradual warming trend. Overall temperatures should be above average, with more days reaching the 60s. However, this is also the month most likely to produce our most significant winter weather events.

Precipitation and Winter Weather

Precipitation is expected to be above average this winter, with the El Niño pattern driving more frequent storm systems. Total rainfall for the December-February period should exceed the normal 11-12 inches, potentially reaching 14-16 inches.

Snow Potential: This is the tricky part. El Niño winters in our region typically don't favor major snow events. The warmer temperatures and storm track often produce more mixed precipitation or freezing rain rather than pure snow. However, we can't rule out 1-2 measurable snow events, particularly in late January or February when cold air can still make it southward.

Ice Events: This is where the greater threat lies. With above-average precipitation and frequent temperature fluctuations, we're more likely to see freezing rain events than heavy snow. These ice events can be particularly dangerous, so stay tuned to forecasts for any winter weather advisories.

Key Dates and Patterns to Watch

While we can't predict exact dates this far in advance, there are some patterns worth noting:

• Late December/Early January: First potential for significant cold snap and possible winter weather
• Mid to Late January: Typically our coldest period; most likely time for winter weather events
• February: Transition period with increasing storm frequency; watch for ice events
• Early March: Final window for any significant winter weather before spring patterns take over

Bottom Line

This winter is shaping up to be warmer and wetter than average, with above-normal precipitation and fewer extreme cold spells. While major snowstorms are less likely, we should be prepared for:

• More frequent rain events and cloudy days
• Occasional ice events rather than heavy snow
• Temperature swings that could create hazardous driving conditions
• A generally milder winter overall, but still with the potential for impactful winter weather

Remember, seasonal forecasts are probabilistic in nature. While the pattern favors these outcomes, individual events can still surprise us. Stay tuned to our daily forecasts for the most up-to-date information, and always be prepared for winter weather regardless of the seasonal outlook.

— WakeWx Meteorology Team